Chapter 18 Study on the Technology of Reliable Life Prediction of Plate Heat Exchanger for Ship Longbo Liu, Na Han, Lingli Fu, and Jun Yao Abstract Reliability prediction for new type plate heat exchanger, taking into accounts similar quantitative information obtained during use of the product. This paper presents a reliability prediction method using the similar product information. Similarity ratio is usually obtained by the experts’ experience. Because the usual method exits some subjectivity, we use the concept of fuzzy closeness degree to analyze the performance parameter of plate heat exchanger. Calculate the field testing time based on the actual using time of similarity product. To estimate the reliability use the trouble-free truncated life evaluation method. Above method offer a new method to calculate the similarity ratio, optimized the expert assessment in part on the similarity of the subjective factor. Keywords Reliability prediction · Similar product information · Similarity ratio · Fuzzy closeness degree · Trouble-free truncated 18.1 Introduction The reliability prediction is a work in order to estimate the reliability of products in a given working conditions. It is not only a kind of technical means of reliability analysis, but also one of the six requirements of the reliability program of equipment development. Among them, the similar product technology is widely used in the process of reliability prediction, but the estimation of similarity ratio of this technology needs the support of expert’s experience and manufacturer’s evaluation on the similarity of the prototype. However, this technology has certain subjectivity, lack of objective evaluation on the overall situation of the products. Therefore, at present, the focus of study is on how to objectively determine similarity between two products and improve the accuracy of reliability prediction. Aiming at the inseparability of various components of the system in the mission reliability prediction technology, the author of a paper [1] had proposed a mission prediction technology based on the information of similar products. The technology obtains the similarity ratio by considering the similarity between each subsystem and calculating the average weight coefficient. The authors [2, 3] had used the information of similar products as a sample, and adopted the similarity system analysis to determine the similarity between the historical sample and the current sample, and then summarized the inheritance factor. This technology makes full use of the information of similar products. The author of a paper [4] had proposed using non equal distance coefficient method to determine the inheritance factor. This technology, to a certain extent, overcomes the subjectivity that experts [5, 6] assess the similarity between two products based on their own experience, but it does not consider the performance characteristics of products. The authors [7–10] had took two similar equipments which had the same local parts as model, established an index model of reliability evaluation based on the case of the relevant L. Liu ( ) Naval Academy of Armament, Beijing, China e-mail: 993618630@qq.com N. Han · L. Fu · J. Yao School of Reliability and System Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China © Society for Experimental Mechanics, Inc. 2020 A. Linderholt et al., Dynamic Substructures, Volume 4, Conference Proceedings of the Society for Experimental Mechanics Series, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12184-6_18 177
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